Grain Today - November 2, 2020
And it does look like a good day. Most of the prairies are going to get a few very nice days after 2 weeks of below normal temps with snow in many locations. Hopefully all the white stuff leaves and we can start over collecting it. Forecasts are for a cold wet winter in the prairies so that will not be fun.
Since Covid has arrived it seems to be the only topic of conversation these days. It has had some effect on the grain markets but not near as much as what tomorrows Presidential election has had on all the markets. It seems that as I write this the experts have decided it is Biden for the win but these are the same guys that predicted Clinton had it wrapped. We will see????
The grain markets have been very interesting during the month of October. We have seen feed wheat rise $15/MT in all markets. There is very little actual feed grade wheat this year. Unless corn gets over $235 picked up in MB wheat will not likely be a big component in feed rations as it is too expensive. We have seen bids of $232 fob Brandon area and $225 Saltcoats SK for feed wheat so this might be an option if you have some Faller or similar grade wheat looking for homes. We do have demand for Nov/Dec movement. Don’t be afraid to get in touch we will be glad to see if that might work for you. Similar bids all through SK and AB as the short supply is holding price up.
The feed barley market has been a real roller coaster in October. $235 delivered Lethbridge first week of Oct to $265 del on Oct 23 – prompt movement. These prices translated into some pretty good prices in the country. We traded $5.00 picked up in Alameda SK and Glenavon SK at that time. We where also trading $260($5.66) fob Beiseker AB as an example. Bids have softened since then but we have heard of strong bids from line companies further out. This tells us that since empty feed bins are not an option we will likely see barley bids strengthen as we go forward.
The best thing you can do if you are hoping to get in on the next rally is to let one of us know what you have for sale. What time frame you want/need to move it in and the price that would get the bin door open. We never ask you to sell all of your grain at one time but in this market it is likely a good idea to consider pricing up.
We are seeing freight rates going west rising as there is big demand and not enough backhauls out of AB. This will hold prices down a bit as you move further east.
One other thing to consider is that if barley gets too dear in Lethbridge that US corn will come in by rail. We aren’t there yet but it is getting closer.
Speaking of corn we have some AB buyers who are paying a premium for good heavy MB corn. So let us know if you would consider marketing some for Dec/Jan movement. We also have good local demand as well.
Oats have been holding their own as well with milling bids of $3.50 depending on location and time frame. Are seeing more demand for glyphos free than in past years. This will be a thing of the future for sure. They are freight sensitive so call if you would like help with some price discovery for your area.
We have seen yellow peas take a nice run in the last 10 days. With $8.00 trading in Eastern SK. Stronger prices as you go west. Might be a good chance to move some if you have any to sell. I doubt if too many producers had $8.00 picked up in their budget for yellow peas in eastern SK when they did the math last winter. This might be a good chance to average up your pea average.
Flax – Another very interesting market. When it went nuts last spring. You could sell anything that looked like flax for big money I thought that would likely be a one off. This fall has sure proved me wrong. $14 at harvest has turned into bids of $17.50 picked up Moosomin SK as an example. I do know from discussions I have had with the buyers in MB and SK they are having a hard time getting their end users to step up and pay more. This market could run out of steam before year end. But another case of $17 flax is still profitable so sell some. Maybe keep some back to explore the highs but don’t be sitting on the sidelines when it starts back down. I have heard of $14 for 2021 crop year already. Just let us know if you have some available so we can notify you if it gets even stronger.
Pulses have been showing some life as well with stronger bids for all lentil types. Check our website to see what has traded. www.qualitygrain.ca or follow Reed on Twitter @qgm_grain
I do apologize if you feel most of my pricing is from MB and Eastern SK. That is due to the fact that is where most of my customers are from so I have a better handle on those locations. If there is something you would like to see in this newsletter that isn’t there let us know and we will see if we can incorporate it.
John Falk Richie Yaremko
Marketer – Altona MB Marketer – Yorkton SK
Victor Dorma Reed McDonald
Marketer - Airdrie AB Owner/Marketer – Calgary AB.
Wes Schneider Howard Warren
Marketer - Vulcan AB Marketer – Champion AB
Robert Rusu Andrew Hall
Marketer - Moose Jaw SK Marketer – Lethbridge AB
204-729-1354 – office
204-761-8320 - cell