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Good Day,
Happy Valentine's Day. Oh wait, that has nothing to do with grain marketing. I will try to stick to the subject at hand. Since the beginning of January, in Manitoba anyways, it has been a real old fashioned winter. Lots of snow, crazy temperature swings. It sure has made moving grain and working with livestock a challenge. Nothing like -35 C to make the hydraulics a little slow, nothing wants to start etc. As you have been struggling along with nature’s challenges the markets haven’t done anything to make you really smile either. Our fearless leader sold Canada to China. With that we did see a bump in canola which was good but yellow peas have not moved much. 25 to 30 cents depending on location here in MB. Out west it has helped a bit more as logistics are better out of AB and western SK. Unfortunately the biggest change our brokers have seen is producers think yellow peas are heading for the moon. I personally don’t see that happening. We still have a very large supply of peas and unless China actively buys several cargoes from Canada we will still have a big carry out. The US markets are able to only take so many of our peas and they need to be under 14 moisture. We are seeing our more reliable buyers buying for April to June movement now. Which means they are getting this year’s peas covered. This brings me to something that I have addressed before but will touch on again. Indications/targets/offers are all important tools in grain marketing. When we come back with a price and you say it's not good enough, that does not help us market your grain. Providing us with realistic targets that we can watch out for is in your best interest. When you provide us with an indication we can use this to watch our buyers and pounce when we see price movements. Speaking of targets, be sure to follow the link to put in your targets online (LINK). When we can’t find the price you would like, we often ask you for a firm offer. This means that you give us a price you will sell at. The best thing to do if your broker doesn’t ask, is to tell him how long you will let your offer stand. You do need to realize that an offer is the same as a grain purchase order with a line company. We won’t check back with you to see if you are still good with your offered price. We will sell it for you. This is a good way to extract as much as possible from the current market. Don’t let FOMO rule your marketing decisions. We have been seeing decent prices in feed barley. Still running around $4.50 to $4.70 in MB. Feed wheat is in a slightly different situation. We have the most feed quality HRS wheat that I have seen since there was that August frost in the early 2000’s. This is creating a surplus to use situation for sure. We are struggling to get $6.00 FOB unless you are very close to the Winnipeg/Steinbach area. If you have some feed wheat it would be a good idea to get it priced even if it doesn’t move until later, unless you are willing to carry it over to next year. I expect feed wheat to trade close to $5.00 if pricing is left until July. Feed (spouted) oats are in surplus too. There is enough good milling quality oats around that the volume that became feed hasn’t helped the prices. Another commodity that we seem to have enough of is corn. We are now trading corn in the $5.00 to $5.20 depending on location. There is still a lot of corn to move, granted the new crop won’t be here until October so there is time. As of right now, the feedlots around Lethbridge are not importing much US corn this year, but do be assured they are watching the market and are willing to make the switch if it becomes better value compared to local barley. Sorry that I haven’t been able to come up with a happy story to tell you. We had a big volume crop in most regions. Some of its poor quality. You need to decide how you plan on handling this and get started marketing. Use a broker (Quality Grain of course), shop your sample locally, however you feel comfortable marketing it. Just don’t leave it until after seeding. My personal opinion is that it is not going to be a good plan this year. Here are some prices we have been seeing picked up Brandon MB area: Barley - $4.65/bus Corn - $5.10/bus Feed Wheat - $5.95/bus Soybeans - $12.50/bus Yellow Peas - $7.90/bus Rye - $4.90/bus 2 CW Oats - $3.25/bus Feed Oats - $2.25/bus That's it for another month. We hope we have some good news next month but who knows. Until next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell [email protected]
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