Good Day,
Looks like seeding is just nicely starting across much of the prairies in the last few days. From what I have seen around Brandon it will become general this week unless we get a big rain event. I thought two weeks ago that soil moisture across the west was better than the last few years and then all those fires started in central Alberta. I have a request. Could anyone who has a moment either text or email one of us with what your soil moisture is like. If we get enough of a response we will send results out to everyone and let you decide if things look good, bad or ugly. April was a very hit and miss month for trading grain. Some weeks the buyers were aggressive and other times you would swear that they had decided to take a spring vacation. We have been talking about this as a group and are starting to think it might be harder to get bids as we approach new crop. And that is coming. In less than 4 months from now there will be a crop in the bin. What kind of prices we will see are just about anyone’s guess. Barley as an example. We have seen new crop bids move lower from $6.75 FOB farm to the last barley we traded at $6.00 fob farm for Sept/Oct movement. Are there still chances to price new crop? Yes there are and we are willing to help with that. I realize that the focus is on seeding right now but it is something to consider looking into when the autotrack is on and you have a minute to talk. We do have buyers looking for old crop rye in MB and eastern SK. Can be hybrid or OP varieties. We also have several buyers looking for old crop malt barley. Copeland and Synergy are the two varieties that are in demand. Decent prices (freight dependent) and movement by end of June. Speaking of malt, the new crop market has been fairly quiet so far. We have booked up some Copeland and Synergy into Manitoba but our Alberta and Saskatchewan buyers seem to be happy sitting on their hands waiting to see where this market goes. Barley prices out west have been coming down, there was a slight bump in prices at the start of road ban season (late March/early April), but have now settled below $9/bus delivered southern Alberta. Unfortunately, many producers with grain left in the bins are expecting the numbers to continue up and are going to have to keep waiting. We still have very little demand for milling oats, we have seen feed bids in the $3.50-3.75 range picked up (depending on location). There is good demand for specialty crops – getting calls from buyers looking for any grade of lentils. Mustard has fallen closer to $0.80/lbs, well lower than the 1.10/lbs it was a few months ago. A reminder that new crop bids on pulses, lentils, mustard and flax have Act of God clauses. If anyone has any of these crops in their rotation this year and would be interested in pricing out some new crop acres, call the broker you have been working with. All contact numbers are at the end of the newsletter. Just a reminder to give us a call for a second opinion on prices when you plan on doing some marketing. We kick tires for free and with feed grains we kick about 50 tires at a time. A little note before I sign off. If you have any bins that have not had the tops pulled off, especially peas and lentils, please check them. We are seeing crusted/heated peas, lentils, and chickpeas. We can find markets for all qualities but it is better for you if the grain has no issues. Well that is it for this month, please take a second to let us know soil moisture in your area and have a safe and productive seeding season. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca
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Good Day,
It is the end of the first week of April and here in MB it does not look like spring. Eastern MB received 10 to 12 inches of snow yesterday and it will be -18 C tonight. More like early March, but as they say you can talk about the weather all you want but no one can change it. It will likely be a late spring again. From conversations with producers, it seems that everyone is in agreement that seeding will fall 10 days to 2 weeks behind. If this is the case it won’t be as late as last year but it could have an impact on what goes in the ground. Before I started to write this months’ rant, I discussed what we should cover with Reed. We both thought that oats might be worth a line or two. So here goes it. There are going to be oats carried out for sure. How much will depend on how many growers will sell into the feed market. I say this because the exporters and mills we work with are all talking about being covered till the new year. So what else is available? The odd small sale and the feed market (we are currently looking for 20,000 bushels of good oats at $4.00 delivered MB for June). Good feed oats are basically $3.00 in MB and Eastern SK as they move west it gets a bit better but not much. Just about all of our brokers have talked to growers that have stated that they will store them until new crop before they will take $3.50 for milling oats. That is their right as they own the oats. One big thing to keep in mind – the mills will not use old crop oats if they can buy new crop. Year old oats lose their shine; they get a bit of a musty odour no matter how good a job you do make of storing them. And the mills know that it is hard to groat oats and make them smell and have the same appearance of new crop. Just some food for thought. I promise no more about oats for a few months. We are still seeing good interest in barley with MB bids of $7.70/bus for May on farm and bids rising as we go west with buyers looking for barley delivered Lethbridge AB for MJJ delivery at $8.90. This doesn’t cover the freight spread with trucks wanting $75 plus/MT to run from MB to AB. Rail moved corn is still holding prices down in AB. Anyone who has some heated or green canola sitting in a back bin, this might be the time to move it. The spreads for heated vs 1 CAN are very tight as the supply of damaged canola is very low and there is good demand. We have been helping producers with price discovery for new crop. I would say we have more new crop barley, lentils and peas on the books than we have had in many years. This looks like it is a good plan as bids keep drifting lower. We do have interest in new crop Malt in MB and Eastern SK. Indications on price are $8.00 picked up in good freight locations. Feed barley in the same areas is $6.25 (+/- depending on location). Another topic I would like to mention. Moisture in stored malt barley. Many producers harvest their barley at higher moistures to help maintain quality by earlier harvest, less staining and reduced risk of chitting. These are excellent farm management decisions. I would like to mention the down side risk attached to this. On a year like last year and a later harvest aeration wasn’t as effective and this causes problems. We have just helped move some barley from a producer that was at 14 moisture when he had to turn off the fans in November. He has dried it down as it is being shipped in March but the last few loads delivered have arrived at 93 -95% germ down from the 99% at harvest. This isn’t an uncommon occurrence. Barley that is stored over 13.5 moisture will often lose germ over the winter. It is a slow process but can have a big impact on your bottom line. We have also had some malt barley delivered at 14.5 to 15.5. This becomes a double issue with risk of lower germ and possible rejection at the end user. Basically what I am saying is make sure you know that your barley has dried down to 13.5 with air or make other arrangements. It is your responsibility to deliver what the contract calls for. Not the buyer’s problem to fix. Last month we started with a bit of an update on our brokers by province. I have to make an apology to our newest broker in MB. Johan Brand – he works out of the Oak River area and has been with Quality Grain for 3 years. He is very good at sourcing grain as he is very active on social media. Johan, I do apologize for not including you last month. That was my mistake. Here are the SK brokers: Richie Yaremko – Yorkton SK – Has been with Quality Grain since 2015, and farmed out of the Willowbrook area for 25 years. Worked as a customer service rep for Cargill (Yorkton) for 17 years, followed by 7 years as a farm market advisor and joined Quality Grain after retiring from advising. He brings a wide range of experience in both the farm side and the supplier/marketing side of the business. Robert Rusu – Moose Jaw SK – Joined Quality Grain in 2019. Farmed in the Kayville area for 30 years followed by 11 years with Saskatchewan Crop Insurance as an adjuster. Robert owned and operated his own semi hauling company – hauling fertilizer, grain, and vegetables across Canada and the USA. He has strong connections with the producers in southern Saskatchewan and with his farming experience he brings a lot of expertise to the Quality Grain team. Have a great Easter weekend and until next month get those drills warmed up and let’s hope for a smooth spring season. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
As we are approaching spring everyone will be getting excited about seeding. I imagine there are still some acres that haven’t been committed to any particular crop yet. From what we have gathered from producers there still is a fair bit of uncertainty in some people's minds. The only crop that I would venture a guess at would be oats. We will see a 30% drop in acres this year. A good chunk of these acres will likely go into wheat, some will also become barley acres. If anyone would take the time to drop me an email or Txt as to what your plans are and if they have changed we would really appreciate it. We have been doing some new crop pricing in the last month. We have been seeing $6.50 barley in MB with prices moving up as we go west (down as you go north). Oats are hard to get over $4.00/bus, yellow mustard is $0.70/lbs with AoG, yellow peas are $10.00/bus. These are just general prices. If you would like some help kicking tires contact any of us and we will be glad to help. One thing I will mention is that everyone should check your bins. And I don’t mean wait till the snow melts off the roof of the canola bin on a -20 day. We have been seeing a fair bit of heated canola and crusted peas in the last month. Peas seem to be more of an issue this year than most. Maybe because so many of them were flat on the ground, yet dry, so the fans ran just long enough to push any moisture to the top. I know there are a large quantity of oats still in bags and bins in the country. Take a peek at them too as they seem to be one of the ones that can be a surprise. Reed thought that it would be a good idea to give everyone a short bio of all our brokers. This month it will be Manitoba brokers so here goes: Richard Chambers: Works out of Brandon MB. Farmed in the Boissevain MB area for 35 years growing grain and raising cattle. Has been with Quality Grain since 2004. Writes the newsletter and talks to producers in MB and eastern SK. John Falk: Works out of Altona MB. He farmed in the Winkler area for 37 years growing corn and small grains and then retired and drove truck for Seed-ex for 6 years. He has been with Quality Grain for 9 years and works with producers in MB. Brent Lewis: Works out of Minnedosa MB. He worked for Viterra and Wilbur Ellis for several years. He farms in the Minnedosa area growing small grains and soybeans. He has been with Quality Grain 1 year. He makes use of his marketing skills he gained from Wilbur Ellis to help producers in MB and eastern SK. As you can see we have a diverse group of Brokers with a solid farm background to help you market your grain. As usual there is everyone’s contact info at the bottom of the newsletter. If anyone would like help with marketing any crop, we are just a call or message away. Until next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Good day everyone. By the looks of the groundhog’s predictions, we are not done with winter yet. That really doesn’t come as a surprise to anyone living in western Canada. As the saying goes, Manitoba seasons are 10 months of winter with 2 months of poor sledding mixed in. Luckily it isn’t that bad. I know everyone is working toward this year's seeding. We have been getting many requests for new crop pricing and have been pricing yellow mustard, feed and malt barley and a few yellow peas. I don’t think any one has signed one for any new crop oats. On that note I will mention oats again. I know we have been bringing that up regularly. The supply of oats can only be called burdensome. Unless one of the big boys put on an export program in the next few months we will have 2 CW- old crop oats competing with the new production in September. This is never a good thing. The millers don’t want them as they are often dull looking and have a stale odour. I don’t get why the Mom doesn’t want musty Cheerios for Johnny. That being said I don’t think the mills feel they need to buy acres at this time. I do know from my conversations with many oat growers there will be significantly less acres of oats going in the ground this spring. It seems the markets generally have settled down from the craziness of post harvest. We haven’t been seeing 50 cents a bushel swings in the futures nearly as often. Let’s hope this is a continuing trend. It will make it much easier for producers to make decisions instead of just reacting to the dramatic changes. I have been asked by several producers what I think will happen going forward. If nothing else, I have learned from these markets it is best to keep my thoughts to myself. That being said, anytime you are looking for help with price discovery don’t hesitate to contact one of our brokers (see list at the end of the email) spread across all three provinces. We are seeing oats drifting lower, yellow and green peas staying steady, feed barley moving up off the lows which is a good thing. Since I work with mainly MB and Eastern SK producers these are the prices we are seeing in these locations. Reed will add some prices from AB. Yellow peas - $12.00 FOB farm Virden MB 2 CW oats -$4.00 FOB Storthoaks SK Feed wheat $10.85 FOB farm Oakburn MB Feed barley $7.75 FOB farm Minnedosa MB Feed green peas $11.70 FOB farm Fairlight SK Prices we were seeing in Alberta last week: Feed Oats - $4.05 FOB Calmar AB Barley - $8.25 FOB Calmar AB - $8.75 FOB Hussar AB Brown Mustard - $1.15/lbs FOB Medicine Hat AB CPS Wheat - $11.75 FOB Didsbury AB Yellow Peas - $12.00 FOB Milk River AB That’s it for another month. We hope we have some good news next month but who knows. Till then, farm safely and enjoy some down time with your family. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
2022 is in the rear-view mirror as I write this. Overall, I think, it was a decent year for most producers in the prairies. Some areas were too dry through much of the growing season and some areas were too wet at seeding - with seeding 4 to 6 weeks behind normal. I was sure that this would lead to late harvest and frozen (feed quality) grain. I was right about the late harvest but wrong about the frost. Most of the crop came off with good grades, test weight and quality. So, 50% on a prediction isn’t too bad. Sort of the same accuracy as Environment Canada. We already have producers talking new crop and are seeing some decent prices compared to historical averages. Just to give you some examples. Yellow Mustard – Yorkton SK area- 0.86/lb FOB farm Oct/Dec Feed Barley - Virden MB - $6.50 FOB farm Aug/Sept Malt Barley – Western MB - $8.00 FOB farm Sept/Dec As you can see these are not horrible numbers and from what information we are getting canola is still decent for Sept/Oct movement. Have heard some producers locking in $12 for #2- 13.5 HRS. Many of our buyers are telling us that they will have New Crop pricing out in time for the crop production shows that are coming along in January. This will give everyone a better idea of what buyers are seeing for end of year demand. We are very happy to help you with the pricing of new crop. Just call or TX any of the brokers listed at the bottom of this newsletter. A very interesting scenario was brought to our attention by one of the producers we work with. We have talked it over and feel it is serious enough to address it in our newsletter. Here is the deal: A producer contacted us about selling their heated canola. We found them a fair price with a reputable buyer. The buyer couldn’t move it for 2 weeks. Meanwhile the producer found a buyer on their own that could move it right away at a decent price. So all good, they went with this deal and in parting I asked the producer to get back to me with how it all worked out. They did, and unfortunately there was a bit of a disagreement on agreed upon price after the load unloaded. In this case the producer's deal was all verbal, nothing on paper. This is the important part. When we do a trade both the buyer and seller get a copy of our Brokernote. It spells out all the details. If there is an issue both sides have a contract that they can refer to. Now I said this, “No you didn’t”. That is one of the reasons that you as a producer pay us the $2.50/MT. Just something to keep in mind. Buyers are starting to come back to the table for current purchases. Not seeing any big bumps but seem to be holding our own from December. We still get the feeling that oats are maybe in a burdensome supply situation right now. Buyers are looking for deliveries out to March to June. This doesn’t spell a big rally in my books. But then I am only 50% right at the best of times. Good thing you don’t have to pay for my thoughts. On that note. We will try to keep the weekly crop pricing updates coming and if any of you feel we could do something to improve the information we deliver just let us know. No guarantees but we will look at it. At the bottom of this email we have a link to Combyne, some of you may have dealt with them in the past, some may be dealing with them currently. They have pivoted from being a marketing marketplace to becoming a one stop Crop Marketing Record/Management application. For more information follow the link by clicking on the image. Until next month, rest up, seeding is coming. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca |
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