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Grain update - April 21, 2021

21/4/2021

 
Good day,

Richard and myself have decided we might try 2 monthly newsletters. One written by him at the start of the month and the other written by myself near the end of the month. With Richard being in Brandon his prospective is a lot more Manitoba and Eastern Saskatchewan and I am in Calgary so my focus is in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan. If you find twice a month is too much and we don’t know what we are talking about, please call Richard with suggestions and insults.

Markets remain extremely volatile, seeing future markets up big one day and down big another. The latest price swings were because of cold weather concerns with much of the cold and snow hitting the mid-western USA last week (and some other macro factors but I am not smart enough to relay it in comprehensive thought). The Canadian Prairies finally got some moisture, in the form of April snow, and at this point all moisture is welcomed. In southern Alberta many producers have gotten an early start to seeding making headway on Wheat and Yellow Pea acres.


Quick Hits
  • Seeing strong demand on damaged Canola (looking for green, heated, spring thrashed). Depending on your location we might be able to find strong bids picked up on farm in NE SK and MB. In Manitoba we have buyers looking to book New Crop Canola off the combine
  • We are actively looking for damaged/heated Soybeans in Manitoba
  • We are still seeing good demand on most feed grains however barley has been seeing higher demand over feed wheat
  • In Alberta it seems many producers are waiting for $7.00 picked up Barley which at this point is still some ways from happening with feedlots bidding under $7.00 delivered in June/July
  • Feed Oat bids come and go but we have been seeing some ok prices lately
  • More New Crop bids are starting to come out as we approach the summer. Many buyers are still gun shy after the run on feed prices from October to November last fall
  • Feeders still have some ways to go to catch up to where Elevator bids have been on new crop so producers may hold off on the majority of their production to see how things shake out
  • Seeing demand in NW Saskatchewan for 13.5 protein or better CWRS #1/2 Wheat for prompt movement. Indicating $9.00 delivered (Battleford area) with $0.03 / tenth protein premium
  • New Crop Soft White Wheat bids along the AB/SK central border are indicated at $6.50-6.75/bus picked up Oct/Nov/Dec - depending on location
  • The milling oat market has cooled off to around $4.00-4.15/bus picked up on old crop
  • It is sounding as harvest in India has not been going as planned further fueling bullish sentiment many pulse producers have been holding dear to. Latest Red Lentil bids are at $0.31-32 delivered to processors in SK and Large Greens are at $0.375-0.38 FOB SK
  • W A Grain has had their licences suspended by the Grain Commission while they undergo an audit. We will report any news/information that is passed along to us to keep everyone updated

Give us a call if you have any questions or would like to price out current crop or new crop picked up at the bin.

Until next time,



Reed McDonald
Marketer/Owner - Calgary, AB
403-380-5044
reed@qualitygrain.ca

Grain Today - April 2021

6/4/2021

 
Good morning,
 
We have had a wild ride in the markets this year haven’t we. Up $15 on day down $16 the next. This is making it harder for producers to pick a time to pull the trigger. I think the biggest mistake you can make is to not do something. A good marketing plan does not involve the phrase “Lets wait and see what happens”. That is not a plan, it is rolling the dice with your operations future.
 
One other comment I have regarding marketing your crops. Make sure you know what you have in your bins. Make sure to get accurate moisture, grade and grams/.5-liter weights. This is especially important when marketing oats. We are still seeing elevators using different conversion factors (Avery, Winchester, or Imperial). That is why we need g/.5l weights. That allows buyers to know what they are buying. And then they know it will work into their end users’ programs.
               
After those comments I should maybe just stick to grain prices. We have seen feed prices soften a bit from 2 months ago. Most buyers have coverage through April and into May. They know there will be issues with road bans and producers busy in the field. We still are seeing historically strong pricing in all feed grains. From the conversations we are having with producers most of the grain (85%) is already priced and a large % of it has moved. This should mean very little clean out pressure in June and July. Sellers do have to remember that September prices and June prices must meet somewhere. No one knows if it will be by current prices dropping to new crop or new crop moving up. Today with it being dry across a large part of central North America I would guess new crop will move up. Just remember what you pay to get this newsletter when you consider the value of my thoughts. As we all know one major rain event through the Midwest and all bets are off.
 
We do have good demand for feed grains of all kinds. The better prices are for June/July movement. The prices are off the highs by 5% for both wheat and barley. If you still have some not prices let us know how much and the specs so we can keep you posted on any selling opportunities.
 
We still have good demand for heated canola, yellow peas, and all feed grains. Green peas just don’t want to recover to December levels. Flax is still strong as well. $22-23/ bushel. We do have good new crop pricing on several commodities as well.
 
Give us a call if you have any questions or comments. Lets all think rainy thoughts for the next while and get the crop off to a good start. Until next month.
 
Richard Chambers
Marketer/Brandon MB
Quality Grain Marketing
204-729-1354  Office
204-761-8320   Cell
Richard@qualitygrain.ca

John Falk                                                      Richie Yaremko
Marketer – Altona MB                               Marketer – Yorkton SK
John.qualitygrain@gmail.com                  Richie@qualitygrain.ca
204-362-0167                                              306-620-9026
 
Victor Dorma                                                Reed McDonald                    
Marketer - Airdrie AB                                  Owner/Marketer – Calgary AB.
Victor.qualitygrain@gmail.com                 reed@qualitygrain.ca
587-438-6749                                               403-380-5044
 
 
Wes Schneider                                            Howard Warren
Marketer - Vulcan AB                                 Marketer – Champion AB
Wes@Qualitygrain.ca                                 howard@qualitygrain.ca
403-485-5565                                               403-485-8569
 
 
Robert Rusu                                                  Andrew Hall
Marketer - Moose Jaw SK                           Marketer – Lethbridge AB
robert@qualitygrain.ca                               andrew@qualitygrain.ca
306-631-8204                                                403-634-6233


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