As the ancient Chinese curse goes, “May you live in interesting times.” May is off to an “interesting” start. We have been finding a fair amount of grain. Just not trading much. Buyers and sellers seem to have a difference of opinion on pricing.
We saw markets dip at the end of April, but the cash feed prices are coming back strong in May. We have seen feed wheat bids of $14 FOB farm in Manitoba. Seems that there is still good demand, but as I have said before empty feed bins aren’t an option. Some people feel that these prices have no were to go but up, however, I am inclined to disagree. There is a point where the loss that you will face from feeding your livestock is so big and you can’t get a position to protect yourself financially and producers will be forced to sell at whatever the market is. If that happens breeding stock will likely follow the fed stock to market. Just economics 101. Long term not good for agriculture in Canada.
For our readers in the west we are seeing feed barley bids in Alberta approaching $10/bus delivered to Lethbridge - unfortunately many producers are expecting that number picked up in the yard and are going to have to keep waiting. 2 CW Rye bids are around $10/bus FOB. Feed bids for White wheat are trailing feed bids for Red wheat at $12.25/bus white vs 13.50+/bus red. Seeing milling oat bids drop significantly. Last week we had bids around $9/bus this week they are closer to $8/bus and dropping.
That being said, we still have real interest in any feed grain. Looks like barley acres are predicted down with oats picking up much of the diverted acres. This is supported by the pole that I had taken while talking to producers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see soybean acres in the US rise more than predicted just because beans are not hogs for fertilizer. If this happens the North American feed markets should stay strong for most or all of next year. This doesn’t mean $11 barley and $12 corn but just good profitable prices. Here in MB, we have the opposite problem that Western SK and AB have. We have too much water. The area from Portage to the east side of the Red River is going to be 25 to 30 days later than normal. This likely will change planting intentions to some degree. More barley less corn maybe?
We are seeing good new crop prices, $8.00 barley, 6.75 oats, 11.50 wheat, $30 brown flax, $13.50 green and yellow peas, 38 cent red lentils, $0.98/lb yellow mustard, $1.10/lb brown mustard. The pulses, mustards and flax have AoG clauses. If any of this is interesting to you, call the broker you have been working with. If not, call head office and Reed will put you in touch with the right broker. All contact numbers are at the end of this newsletter.
Just remember to give us a call for a second opinion on prices when you plan on doing some marketing. We kick tires for free and with feed grains we kick about 50 tires at a time so we have pretty good coverage.
Just a little note before I sign off. If you have any bins that have not had tops pulled, please check them. We are seeing crusted peas, barley, oats and heated canola. The grain all went in very dry, but it is that time of year. We can find markets for all qualities, but it is better for you if the grain has no issues.
Till next month,
Marketer - Brandon, MB
204-729-1354 - Office
204-761-8320 - Cell