Good afternoon,
 
I thought I would take a few minutes and jot down some of my thoughts and our observations of what we are seeing from both buyers and sellers during the last two weeks as COVID-19 becomes more and more part of our lives. I feel it is here to stay, 6 weeks from not it won’t be in the past, so we need to adjust to it.
 
Since COVID-19 has became the #1 news item we actually have not seen much of a decrease in prices for either feed barley, feed oats, or feed wheat. The demand for large tonnage isn’t as pronounced as it was before Christmas but we are still getting decent bids. We are seeing a real reluctance from producers in their willingness to sell at these prices. So often we have producers tell us “That’s not a bad price but I think I will wait till this corona thing sorts its self out.” I am not sure that is going to be the winning strategy this year. We are 4 to 6 weeks away from the 2019 harvest getting rolling again in Western Canada.
 
When that happens, we will be seeing large volumes of spring thrashed feed grains hitting the market. The hog industry isn’t going to get really excited about this grain but, if it gets cheap enough, they will switch some demand to it.  That being said they won’t be forced to pay up very much as there is lots of old crop barley and feed wheat still out there. Much of it hasn’t moved as a large volume of it is tough and producers are waiting to air it down, but that grain will be ready to market at the same time the spring thrashed comes to town so prices won’t be going the way we want them to.
 
This is also happening at a time when demand starts to drop for feed grain in Western Canada as well. If you have been following the cattle and hog markets you know that anyone feeding them is going to have to have a very sharp pencil to stay above water let alone make money.  As of right now most feedlots and feed mills are 90% covered into May. They are not going to pressure the market up either. No one on the buying side wants to be long, that always tells me they think there is more down in the market.
 
With restrictions either on or just around the corner this is maybe not the easiest time to market feed grain but if you are sitting on a big percentage maybe you should do some shopping and move a small chunk of it.
 
These are just my thoughts from what we are seeing taking place in the markets. Gives us a call and talk about what you need to have happen and maybe we can make something work for you.
 
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John Falk                                                         Richie Yaremko
Marketer – Altona MB                                  Marketer – Yorkton SK
[email protected]                     [email protected]
204-362-0167                                                 306-620-9026
 
Victor Dorma                                                  Reed McDonald                    
Marketer - Airdrie AB                                    Owner/Marketer – Calgary AB
[email protected]                   [email protected]
587-438-6749                                                 403-380-5044
 
 
Wes Schneider
Marketer, Vulcan AB
[email protected]
403-485-5565
 
 
Richard Chambers
Marketer - Brandon MB
[email protected]
204-729-1354 – office
204-761-8320 - cell

Good day,
 
February has been a very interesting month for grain markets across the country. There is so much uncertainty as to what will happen with the stock market (down almost 20% last week), corona virus, rail line blockages and if our government will do their job and try to help the west, instead of hurt us.
 
We have been taking the time to talk to many of our buyers for both local and off shore markets and they are all telling us the same thing. They are all very concerned about being long in this volatile market so rather than bid aggressively they are just buying what they need week by week. This is making it much harder to extract a premium for bigger lots of grain.
 
We have seen feed barley bounce up and down through out Feb. FOB farm Western MB & Eastern SK. $3.70 to $4.00 depending on the day, moisture, and location. AB markets have traded in the $225 to $230 delivered Lethbridge. Feed wheat bids have had a similar ride in Feb. Western MB/Eastern SK low vom, 58lb, dry feed wheat is seeing $5.00 in SK to $5.30 in Western MB. We have been seeing $230 delivered Lethbridge as well for wheat. We have been trading tough wheat with discounts up to 16.9 after that it becomes what the buyer can work with.
 
Tough grain is being discounted $5/MT per point of moisture in just about all markets. There is a bunch of tough grain in the bins so I don’t see the buyers backing off on their discounts anytime soon. Now that we are into March it could be as little as 6 weeks before we start to see spring thrashed barley and wheat. This isn’t going to help the feed market especially into AB. As there will be the risk of excreta in the grain many hog operations won’t buy spring thrashed. I think there might be enough spring thrashed feed wheat around that some of the line companies will be buying it. But this will depend if the rail issues with the blockages gets solve immediately. Otherwise the rail lines will have no capacity to move spring thrashed grain.
 
Milling oats have taken the biggest drop since mid January. We had bids of close to $4 in central and eastern MB at that time. They are currently in the $3.70 range with bids backing of by the freight differential as you move west. We do still have good movement if you have milling oats on hand. We have buyers interested in feed oats as well.

Peas have been interesting with all these issues with China struggling with industrial shut downs or slow downs. The people will still have to eat but it is slowing demand. One of our biggest problems is the lack of reliable transport in Canada. No one wants to buy Canadian when they can’t be sure we can fill their ships when they arrive at Canadian ports. 50 ships waiting on the west coast right now.
  
Freight is still being difficult to source at reasonable prices. It seems that the lack of qualified drivers is a big part of the problem along with rising fuel costs.  It could be that the current freight rates are the new normal.
 


I thought it might be of interest to you if I did a bit of a run down on the Brokers who work for Quality Grain. I will start with myself.
 
Richard Chambers – Brandon MB
Born in the Boissevain MB area and lived and farmed there until he retired in 2004.
Has a Diploma in Agriculture from the U of M -1975
Had a mixed farming operation of small grains and purebred Simmental cattle.
Worked for Eastman Feeds in Brandon for 2 years then join Quality Grain. I have a total of 14 years experience as a grain broker and still enjoy talking to producers.
 
John Falk – Altona MB
Born in Winkler MB and was raised and farmed south of Winkler until he retired in 2004. Produced both small grains and corn.
Has a Diploma in Agriculture from the U of M – 1975
Served on municipal council as councillor and reeve for 15 years.
Hauled grain for Seed-ex for 5 years after he retired from farming.
Has been working with Quality Grain for the last 5 years. Helping producers in MB and in central Alberta. He is our corn guy.
 

Grain in demand:
We are looking for dry, 58lb, low vom feed wheat in MB or Eastern SK. $5.25 Brandon MB.
Feed oats in MB, SK and AB
Looking for feed chickpeas in Southern SK.
Yellow Peas into Crossfield AB for June.
Heated or Green Canola in MB, SK and AB
 
 
If you are looking for any help checking prices just give anyone of us a call.
 
 
John Falk                                                         Richie Yaremko
Marketer – Altona MB                                  Marketer – Yorkton SK
[email protected]                     [email protected]
204-362-0167                                                 306-620-9026
 
Victor Dorma                                                  Reed McDonald                    
Marketer - Airdrie AB                                    Owner/Marketer – Calgary AB.
[email protected]                   [email protected]
587-438-6749                                                 403-380-5044
 
Wes Schneider
Marketer, Vulcan AB
[email protected]
403-485-5565
 
 
 
Richard Chambers
Markerter
Brandon MB.
[email protected]
204-729-1354 – office
204-761-8320 - cell

Good morning,
 
We have seen feed prices stay much the same for February from where they ended at in January.
 
We are seeing feed wheat traded from $5.00 to $5.35 picked up on farm for low vom, dry, hog quality wheat. The biggest trouble we are having sourcing wheat for feed mills is that so much of it is tough or damp. We also are seeing stronger bids for good feed wheat from some line companies especially G3. This is keeping a floor under the feed prices.
 
Barley has remained under pressure with good dry barley selling for $3.80 to $4.00 picked up in western MB and eastern SK. We are seeing more barley that is tough or damp as well. This likely will not work into your feed programs as some of it is arriving at its destinations with some heating taking place already.
 
I do have some good-sized lots that would deliver into the Elie Mb area at $4.50 delivered with freight spreads from there. This is good heavy barley, dry, low vom, hog quality barley. As we get closer to restrictions it will be harder to source some of this barley as it is in locations that have issues with spring weights.
 
Feed peas/lentils have moved up a bit in the last month. We have been selling peas at $6 to $6.25 picked up so this leaves delivered MB bids in the $240 to $250 range.
 
 
Richard Chambers
Quality Grain Marketing
1-204-729-1354 - Office
1-204-761-8320 - Cell
[email protected]
www.QualityGrain.ca
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