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Good Day,
Right now I should be thinking about Christmas as the snow is flying here in Brandon. I am not ready for Christmas or winter for that matter. If the forecast is right, we will have plus temps all next week so good-bye snow. That is fine with this broker. It seems that the only thing I talk about is how volatile the markets are. That hasn’t changed which isn’t a surprise considering all the things going on in the world, politically and economically. And then we have the Gaza war thrown in for interest. So enough of that. We have had a busy month in October. Trading grain was uneven but the month as a whole a decent amount of grain was contracted. Prices aren’t much different on average from beginning to end of the month. Feed grains such as corn and barley trended down (corn is under $7.00 picked up and barley is 5.75/bus - location dependent, peas in SW MB hit as high as $11.00/bus picked up but in the past couple weeks have come down closer to $10.50/bus. Feed wheat is just over $8.00/bus, and milling oats seem to be holding $5.00-5.25/bus picked up depending on the area. As I write this it seems that producers are locking the bin door again. We are still seeing large quantities of corn in the feed market. If you want to see what it has done to markets take a look at the bids for ethanol corn into Minnedosa. There aren’t any bids until March. They are covered. Not a good sign if you are looking for a big price bump in any of the feed grains. We do have some homes for barley and yellow peas. If you need to move either by year end let us know and we will work on that. Sitting in our chairs looking at bids everyday we see trends farmers may miss. As mentioned earlier the Ethanol plants are booked solid until the end of March. We are seeing similar trends in Milling Oats and Yellow Peas. As time goes the bids keep getting pushed further out and closer to spring. This calls for some forward planning. If you are looking for January movement and cash flow locking in a few super b’s in the next couple weeks for January would be advised. This month we would like to reacquaint you with our Quality Grain Marketing Broker Team. Since I am here in Manitoba that is where I will start. Richard Chambers: Retired farmer from Boissevain MB. Lives in Brandon. Has worked with Quality Grain for 18 years as broker/marketer. Can be reached at richard@qualitygrain.ca or 204-761-8320. John Falk: Retired farmer from the Winkler area. Lives in Altona. Has been with Quality for 9 years as a broker. He is our corn guy. John@qualitygrain.ca or 204-362-0167 will reach him. Brent Lewis: Farms in the Minnedosa area. Worked with Viterra and Wilbur Ellis. Has been with Quality Grain for 2 years. Contact him at blewis@qualitygrain.ca or 204-868-8070. Johan Brand: Lives in the Cardale area. Works in the livestock industry currently. He can be reached on Facebook, or email at jojomasteronline@gmail, or 431-757-3385. Jeff Sigurdson: Lives in Winnipeg. Jeff has over 20 years of experience dealing in Soymeal and DDGs. If you are looking for either product, he is the man to talk to for pricing and freight. He can be reached at jeff@qualitygrain.ca or 204-205-0380. Richie Yaremko: Retired farmer from the Willowbrook area. Lives in Yorkton. Was a sales rep with Cargill for 17 years, followed by a farm market advisor for 7 years and Quality now for 8 years. He brings a great level of knowledge on both the buy and marketing side of the markets. Richie can be reached at richie@qualitygrain.ca or 306-620-9026. Robert Rusu: Retired farmer from the Avonlea area. Lives in Moose Jaw SK. Has been with Quality Grain for nearly 4 years. He is our Lentil and Chickpea guy. robert@qualitygrain.ca or 306-631-8204. Brent Warren: A former rancher in the Canora SK area. Currently living in Champion AB. Has been with Quality for just under two years. He is our freight and feedlot guy. Brent can be reached at brentw@qualitygrain.ca or 306-562-0419. Jason Thalheimer: Former oil patch directional driller, he left the patch to settle into a less nomadic lifestyle and decided to give learning the ropes on being a grain pusher a go. Jason works from his acreage just north of Okotoks AB. Give Jason a call for all your grain marketing needs and weekly price updates. He can be contacted at jason@qualitygrain.ca or 403-826-8650 Andrew Turner: Is the newest addition to the Quality team. Living at Three Hills AB, Andrew is our Organic Grain contact. Something we had very limited exposure with before, he is a welcomed addition to the group. If you have any Organic Grain or specialty crop products he is the guy to call. Andrew can be contacted at aturner@qualitygrain.ca or 587-287-8447 Reed McDonald: Owner of Quality Grain since 2019 is the man of many hats, not limited to - tech support, customer relations, bookkeeping, contracting, technology officer, logistics, and grain brokering. If you have any marketing needs, reach out to any of the brokers listed above. They are all great resources that would love to hear from you on your grain marketing needs. As always if you have any wants, needs, wishes or suggestions let us know. We'd love to hear from you guys. Have a great Remembrance Day Weekend! Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca
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Good Day,
Another month gone, and we could have snow in less than 30 days if we are unlucky. I know many areas in western Canada would like to see a big snowpack for the moisture. Trouble with snow in my experience is that it all blows into the bin yards and corrals, and you end up moving the same snowflake 20 times in the winter. Especially with a Halloween start for winter. That is the only thing that is for sure in this business of agriculture is that you have no control over the weather. Since I composed the September newsletter, we have had some interesting things happen to the grain market. The fool we have in Ottawa has managed to alienate the two biggest countries in the world. Not a problem for him but it will hit everyone involved in agriculture in the pocketbook. The Mississippi River is as low as it has ever been. With barges being light loaded and dredging continuing at a fast pace to try to keep traffic volumes near normal. This likely will affect movement of corn to export and shipment of fertilizer into the heart of North America. So, corn will get cheaper, and fertilizer will likely go up. As I mentioned in the September newsletter, the USA having trouble exporting old crop corn was impacting feed grains prices all over the Midwest and Canada. We had seen feed barley stabilize around the $6.00/bus mark in MB in the middle of September. Unfortunately, the trend has become downward since mid month. We are now trading $5.75ish in Western MB. Oats are still holding their own with $6.00/bus delivered Eastern MB for Jan/Feb/Mar (that is $5.50 picked up most locations). The pulses are holding firm. Yellow peas have been trending up towards the end of the month. With $11.00 picked up for glyphos and GMO-free peas for Jan/Feb/Mar movement. Feed wheat has taken a beating as corn has become so cheap. Trading sub $9.00 picked up for good quality wheat. Even at that price it doesn’t pull into rations vs $7.20 delivered corn. It is only being used in some rations that require it. With it being a decent harvest season, we haven’t seen much true feed wheat yet. I think it is out there. If you can’t get a good deal from your local line company, give us a call to help shop it for you. We have seen a bit of life in the Malt market with $7.50/bus picked up SK and MB, subject to sample approval of course. This is good to see as there is a fair bit of good barley not contracted out there. If you have either Synergy or Copeland, we have buyers looking so give us a call. For reference feed barley is trading at $7.00/bus delivered to feedlot alley in Southern Alberta. Here in MB producers have been very fortunate as they on average have a good crop. We have heard some disappointing yields but have heard some amazing ones too. 125 bus feed barley, 60 bus canola, 90 bus HRS wheat. It is truly amazing what can be grown with very limited rainfall if it arrives at the right time. Heading west yields start to trend down with reports of things being extremely spotty but better than expected for most growers. Better than expected is not saying much as many areas in SW Saskatchewan and Southern Alberta were expected to be sub 10 bus. Heading north of Highway 1 we are hearing reports of average crops with some areas having excellent crops but the spottiness continuing. Overall average yields are down from 2022 but not near as bad as 2021. Most buyers seem to be working hand to mouth. Just buying what they need for next month. I think they are concerned about how big the impact from political disputes here and in the US will affect the ability to export both Canadian and US grains. No one can afford to be caught long if things get worse. Now to some housekeeping. Harvest is a stressful time for all parties involved (producers, grain buyers, grain processors, truckers, brokers and the list goes on). I will be the first to admit that not everything will go as planned here at Quality Grain. We have seen August contracts drag over 30 days, and we appreciate the patience our producers have shown when this happens. Your voices do not fall on deaf ears; we are working diligently behind the scenes with our buyers to see if there are other options on the contracts. Harvest pressure is real as volumes often outpace capacity, unfortunately end users accidently over buy, or trains aren’t coming as quickly as expected, machinery breaks down, and on and on. Another important house cleaning topic is the verbal agreement for us to draw up a Brokers Note is binding. Failure to receive or failure to read your Brokers Note does not void the contract. If you do not receive the Brokers Note let us know immediately. It is important that you read the Brokers Note as it has all the terms of the deal that have been negotiated on them. After you read it, please either sign it and return a signed copy to either reed@qualitygrain.ca, or respond to the email with a “confirmed” so we know you have read it. If there are any issues this is the time to bring it up. Fortunately, 99.9% of producers are honorable people and don’t even need a signed contract. Their word is good enough. But please read it over. The same applies to our buyers that we work with. I mentioned this as we had three instances last month of people on both sides not honoring their commitment. Anyone that thinks they are getting away with something should realize that the grain industry is small and closely knit. As an example, last spring I had an email from a buyer regarding some barley we were showing from one area. He said if this is “Joe Blow” don’t deal with him. He won’t honor his contracts. Everyone feels the same way. I have had farmers mention buyers who are problems too. But like I said 99.9 % are great people. We just kick the 0.1% to the curb where they belong. Please read your Brokers Note. Having not read and confirmed it is not a reason to void a deal. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Here we are in the first week of September. Harvest is well underway. Leaves are starting to turn, and winter is just around the corner. These are things that happen every year. The grain markets go up and down every year too. This year is different from what we have seen the last few years. You ask different how? As an example, we traded $7.75 picked up barley in late July. Today September the 5th barley in the same general area is trading at under $5.30 picked up for next 2-week movement. The last 3 years we didn’t have this happen to any degree because the market was driven more locally than this fall. The barley market is being affected by two main factors. First and most obvious, is that yields are way better in MB than anyone projected 6 weeks ago. I have had several producers talking about malting varieties yielding well over 100 bus/acre and have had colonies telling us yields of 120 to 130. These yields are more than making up for slightly lower seeded acres than in past years. The other elephant in the room is the US corn crop. Even though yields are not projected as record breaking there is the huge problem of the US and China trade relations. If the US can’t sell the volumes to China that they have in the past, the corn has to go somewhere. So that is where we come in, with corn bids running at $4.00 US X $1.34 to convert to CAN$ that leaves us with $5.40 CAN corn. Discount this by 12% for poorer feed efficiency in barley and you have $4.74 for what barley is worth. This is just an example of what could happen to our feed markets. This will be bad for growers but might help our feeding industry be profitable. Another interesting crop is oats. I think two newsletters ago I mentioned I thought old crop oats might be a good crop to hold. For the first time ever it looks like I might be right. We have gone from $3.80 picked up to $5.20 picked up (milling oats). Nice return on investment. Just remember this could be close to the top. If you have a bunch in the bin and more in the field it might not be a bad idea to sell some. As always, selling into a rally isn’t wrong very often. Waiting to hit the top can be an expensive project. The markets DON’T CARE that you need a higher price. So don’t use that as your reason for waiting. Flax has also shown some life in the last few weeks which is great. You can’t produce flax at $14.50 and have a good year. I have not talked to anyone with flax in the bin yet but it will be interesting to see how yields are. We have heard of 100 bus wheat and 30-bushel wheat. So much depends on if that rain cloud hit your land or not. In MB people are generally pretty positive about the canola crop but not much is harvested. It would be great if we could get an update on what your yields have been. Just info for us, not for Stats Canada. Lately, we have had many producers doing what I always suggest, they have been calling to get help with price discovery. We are always glad to help and it lets us know what you have so we can help you market it. Across the board September movement is filling up fast and many buyers are looking into October and later. We still have good demand for heated canola with very quick movement. Until next month. Have a safe and profitable harvest. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Good day to all our hard-working producers on their combines and sprayers. Harvest is just heating up and it will be very variable across the prairies. We took a drive last week from Brandon to Whitewood SK up to Canora SK and then back to Brandon by way of Russell MB. I was surprised how good the crops were on most of that trip. Going west from Brandon it looked as though the yields would start to drop as we went west. Going north from Whitewood they did improve as we approached Yorkton. On our return trip the crops got better the further east from Yorkton we went. From Russell to Minnedosa I would have to say they will have a good average crop. There are many places in SK and AB that don’t have a good crop. Was talking to a producer in Arcola SK who was battling grasshoppers in his 10-bushel durum so they wouldn’t move into his canola, which still had potential. Best summation is that crops will be variable. My guesstimate is 80% of normal yield when you average the prairies as a block. Not a crop failure but some guys are going to get hurt. Some things that have came up in the last month across our desks that we would like to mention. I am sure you have read some of this before, but all that means is we think it is worth mentioning again. I had an enquiry from a producer about glyphos at harvest. We took the question up the chain to our buyers. Here is what we found out: Oats: Most buyers prefer no glyphos, some will not touch glyphos sprayed oats whereas others have markets and can work with both. They do need to know if the oats have glyphos or not as it will be a big issue if shipped to the wrong end user. All the end users test some of the product that come into their plants. Some of them test every load. This just means that producers need to keep good records if they end up with the same crop pre harvested two different ways. The issue is that if glyphos contaminated grain gets dumped in a none glyphos facility the producer that shipped the glyphos grain can be liable for all losses that are caused by the contamination. Yellow peas: The buyers had much the same message. There are more markets for glyphos free. Possibly a bit of a premium but we are seeing that incentive disappear. Rather it seems the translation is there is a discount for the glyphos treated peas not a premium. But you have to remember this is from the guys that think they are doing you a favor by bidding high prices then charging a 1% handling/elevation fee. So yes, there are markets for sprayed and glyphos free peas but ultimately there are more options for glyphos free. Just make sure you keep good samples in an airtight container and that you clean all your harvest equipment when you switch crops. Another little thing that caused headaches for a producer this month was that he had dumped screenings back on top of his good grain and forgot about it. When this was shipped there were discounts for excessive dockage applied. If we had known, we could have made sure the high dockage load went to a different market that had no issues with that kind of product. Please be sure to inform your broker of exactly what you have. As unfortunately the discounts always run downhill to you. We have had many inquiries about new crop pricing on several crops. What we are finding out currently most processors/buyers have good coverage short term but there is still decent demand further out. As an example, we were looking for bids on no glyphos yellow peas in western MB. The best bids we had were from the same buyer. Big spread from off the combine to mid winter. $330 ($8.90/bus) FOB farm for Aug/Sept move and $355 ($9.60/bus) for Dec/Jan movement. That is a pretty decent carry for 3 months deferred delivery. Nearly $0.70/bushel. We have talked about what we think going forward we will see for prices. There will be some downward pressure nearby just because there is always harvest pressure. Will the smaller crop translate into big gains? Who knows. My personal thoughts are that if you don’t need to sell oats or flax for either bin space or cash flow, be patient. But please remember that my thoughts are possibly worth what you pay for them. All other crops time will tell. It is strange how often on a year that is perceived to have a small crop the best price happens within 90 days of harvest. As harvest approaches this might be a good time to think about what you need to move at harvest and what you can wait on. If you need immediate movement, be sure to give us a heads up so we can keep an eye out for marketing opportunities. Same as always. Keep good samples, make sure you know what you must sell especially regarding moisture in your oats and rye. All markets for these two crops insist on 13.5% moisture. Discounts to apply if over and possible rejection if too high. We are going to have good markets for rye, both hybrid and open pollinated. Glyphos isn’t a market killer, but it will keep you out of the premium cover crop market. But if harvest conditions dictate, spray your rye. It is worth more sprayed and, in the bin, as high FN #2 or better rye- than sprouted and only good for feeding cows or growing mushrooms. Quick reminder, Reed will be in Olds Alberta this evening co-hosting a happy hour with Combyne, Farmbucks, and Quality Grain. The event runs from 4:30-6:30 at Our Flames Restaurant and Lounge. We ask everyone to register at the Eventbrite page if you are interested in attending. There will be complimentary appetizers and drinks and ample time to connect and network with us and other attendees. Have a good and safe harvest and don’t be shy with sharing yields you are seeing as the crop is coming off. We will share our findings across AB/SK/MB. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Hello from Brandon. Since I composed last months’ epistle, things have changed in the markets. Will it be the new trend or is it just a weather scare? Your guess is as good as mine. The feeling we are getting from producers across the prairies is that the general soil condition is dry. Some areas would be classified as in drought. As you all know, even if we get a general rain the crop is set, and a rain would just hold it. If you have a good crop well along you should be thinking about pricing some of it at harvest or shortly after. If it is dry, 7 years out of 10 we see the best prices within 60 days of harvest. Just because feed barley is $8.00 as buyers try to cover positions in September, this doesn’t guarantee that it will be $9 in Jan. By that time feed grain users will have found the cheapest feed they can which could put a lid on barley at $8.00. One little thing that would really make us more efficient and more helpful to you would be when you call us. Unless it is just to pick our brain - leave a message please, with some detail. Then we can call you back with either prices or the information on the trade you called about. We are not mind readers and sometimes a call with no message never gets returned. Thanks in advance from the Quality Grain team. This year we have many producers that have contracted new crop grain with us, and I have 2 things I think might be worth mentioning. First – if you think/ know already you will be short and don’t have an AoG clause, contact your broker and we will work with you and the buyer to come to a resolution of the shortage. When it is early the buyer can still cover his sales and it will not cost you near as much. Second – you have a crop that will go to harvest please make sure you retain accurate samples and get a sample to the buyer immediately. Even if it was harvested tough and is on air. This way you will be at the top of the line for shipment, and you will know if there are issues that might affect the price. Too often we have a producer call in October and ask when will my contracted grain move? When we ask if the buyer got the sample all too often, we hear that the sample is still in the shop. Really slows things up. We have had more interest in old crop oats and new crop barley this week than we had in the 2 months before. Makes me think the buyers are all feeling that it could be a short crop. As an example -we traded 245g/.5l dry oats for $4.00 picked up 2 weeks ago, yesterday we traded (same quality in same general area Brandon MB) for $4.65. New crop barley in MB has gone from $6.25 to $7.25 picked up Aug/Sept in the same time frame. You be the judge. The past couple years we have seen a jam of new crop being sold directly off combine and contracts dragging on longer than the delivery time frame has dictated. If you are marketing your grain off combine for cash flow reasons let us know which crops you have available and we can help you pick and choose which crops to go with to get cash in hand the quickest. We can also look at negotiating in storage fees to get the contract cleaned up or at least get you some more money if it does drag on longer than expected. One last note, Quality Grain Marketing will be co-hosting a Happy Hour on Tuesday August 1st at AgSmart in Olds AB. Combyne, Farmbucks, and Quality Grain will have representatives speaking and networking from 4:30-6:30 PM at Our Flames Restaurant and Lounge. To get tickets to the event please follow this link to Eventbrite and reserve a spot. That is about it for this month. Enjoy the bit of a lull before harvest hits full swing, take the kids to the lake. Go fishing and enjoy our Canadian summer. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca |
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November 2023
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