Good Day,
Here we are into February and winter has a rather good hold on the prairies. There have been lots of schools and roads closed due to weather. It has not been a pleasant winter for the people with cattle. It has been 20 years since we calved in Jan/Feb and I can still remember every frozen finger and ear. But the days are getting longer and it gives hope of spring to come. Everyone was anxious with the runup to Feb 1st and the tariffs. We got a reprieve. “Big Woopy.” My guess is that this will be ongoing. The threat of tariffs and then they aren’t as bad as threatened. So long as the US can force some concessions they will likely be satisfied for now. This last reprieve has got some of our US bound buyers back looking to move a bunch of grain in Feb. All I can really say is “Stay tuned”. We have seen some interest in pricing some new crop. We had some yellow pea bids in Jan of $9.00 for Aug/Oct but those are up in the air due to, you guessed it. Tariffs. We have had producers ask about feed barley prices and have traded several lots in the $4.80 to $4.90 range in MB. Depending on location of course. Haven’t seen much interest in NC oats. Many of our buyer’s ship into the US and are not sure what the tariff situation will do to their sales. Anyone interested in pricing NC just get hold of one of us and we will get you some options. With this uncertainty Trump's Tariffs are having on the market we have seen Yellow Peas and feed grain stall out in price. Most Yellow Pea bids are around $10.50/bus picked up. $11 in the yard is getting harder to find and if the USA does do tariffs we expect that number to continue to decline. The Rye market in MB is nearly non existent we priced some Rye out a couple weeks ago and the best we found was $4.85/bus picked up Souris. In Alberta we have been seeing $6.60/bus delivered to Lethbridge for May/June movement and prompt movement at a steep discount. One thing we have noticed in the last couple of months is that most of our better prices are for movement 2-3 months down the road. If we need to move something within the next 3 weeks prices usually take a big hit. Reed was commenting today that he hasn’t seen this trend as pronounced in the 6 years he has been with Quality Grain. If you want to capture the best prices you need to plan ahead and look 2-3 months down the road. As an example. We had a big lot of corn that the producer was looking for for $6.25-$6.30 picked up. We could only get him $6.22 for Feb/March movement. But if he was willing to spread the same lot over March-June we could get him $6.35. Just a little thing to keep in mind. We have been talking to producers about planting intentions for the upcoming season. I imagine most of you already have 90% of your acres committed. If we could get some indication from you as to what you are planning it would be good information. All I am looking for from you would be to say the same, or that you have made big changes. We would be very interested in what prompted you to go with that plan. Eg) World situation, local moisture conditions, tariffs etc. On a positive note we would like to introduce our new broker Daryl McCharles from Brandon MB has joined the Quality Grain team. Daryl had a long career with P&H and brings an extensive breadth of knowledge in grain markets, experience and expertise with customer relations. If you have dealt with Daryl in the past don't be shy and feel free to reach out and give him a friendly hello. Quick reminder that now is a good time to check on any bins you might have Canola in. We have seen a bit of an uptick in the amount of heated canola we have been seeing. Always a good idea to pull a load and get it tested. If you see any issues let one of us know and we will help you with pricing. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell [email protected]
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Good Day,
WOW. Another year gone and we are all still here. Struggling along trying to make sense out of the markets. Trying to give some direction to producers when they ask where we see markets going…. on that note. Our advice is possibly only worth what you pay for it. We still want to talk to you so don’t stop reaching out. I feel that this coming year is going to be an interesting one. With Trump taking over. Tariffs maybe, maybe not. Trudeau taking a knee. All I can say to that is about time!!! The world seems to think it is a good thing for Canada as the loonie has gone up for the first time in a while. As you all know this won’t make our wheat become worth a fortune but let’s hope it stabilizes things a bit. On the tariff note we have buyers who are shipping your grain south putting a clause in their contracts that will protect them from any tariff that is put in place. Unfortunately, there really isn’t any way to protect yourselves from this happening other than shipping your grain before any tariffs are in place. It’s impossible to know with Trump whether the tariffs are an idle threat or if they will happen immediately. If he does half the things with executive orders that he has threatened, things will be a shit show for sure. A little admin thing that has come along thanks to the Canada postal strike. We have been receiving cheques that were dated in early November in the last few days - thanks for the payments. Seems like another step forward for the postal system working through the backlog. On a similar topic - we found that Electronic Fund Transfers (EFT) to get our producers paid worked so well that we are going to encourage everyone to go that route. It has always been faster and this last strike just confirmed it is the way to go. So don’t be surprised when we ask for void cheques. If you are comfortable with us keeping yours on file just let Reed know and then we can move things along quicker. I know many producers I talked to in Nov and Dec were going to wait and see what Jan Feb did to the prices. So far we have only seen a few days of Jan but so far prices aren’t any better. Here in MB we are still finding bids around $5 picked up for feed barley. But no buyer seems to be short and paying up. Maybe if we get 6 weeks of cold weather that will help but that doesn’t look like the trend that is coming. Yellow peas are another interesting crop. We had $11 FOB farm when there was talk of offshore buyers. That seems to have quieted down and now the peas would have to be soy, corn and preharvest glypho free to get those prices. For a dry, #2 Yellow Peas are more like $10.25-$10.50 now. FYI I am talking about MB and eastern SK with these prices. Who knows where prices and demand will go in the future but at this point it seems unlikely we will see anywhere close to the $13 prices from last year. Anyone thinking about new crop prices for barley, oats or peas reach out as we have had some interest from our buyers. We like to help kick tires as it lets us know which buyers are seriously looking and which are blowing smoke. As a reminder if you haven’t checked your bins recently with this mild weather coming up it might be a good idea to pull a load to confirm that all is as it should be. Please do. We have seen many times the first load comes out spoiled, tough, heated, or has bugs. This isn’t just canola. We are seeing a pickup in demand for off conditioned/heated canola so don’t be shy to give us a call if you are having problems. With the volatility in the grain markets expected to continue it is always a good idea to consider shopping around for old and new crop prices. We are very happy to help you with that. If you would like us to help, just call, text or email one of our brokers and let them know what you are considering. That’s it for this month. Until next month stay safe and don’t hesitate to call if you have any questions or comments (positive or negative - feedback helps us improve). Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell [email protected] Good Day,
As I am writing this, most of the Remembrance Day celebrations have concluded. I just hope that even if you didn’t have time to participate, you did take at least a moment to think about what sacrifices that the young women and men made. They were willing to risk their lives to keep Canada a country of freedom and opportunity. We all need to be grateful for what they did. Back to the exciting world of grain marketing. We have seen improvements in many commodities in the past few weeks. Nothing crazy but better prices. It is funny how that affects people’s minds. In September $4.50 seems to be the price that would buy barley here in western MB. Now the selling goal has moved. $5.00 is the new target. We are seeing $5 in western SK and AB but that is a factor in freight more than changing demand. We do have to remember that our dollar has dropped from over $0.74 Us to under $0.72 US this morning. That is a big part of what is fueling the increase in our prices. US corn is more expensive. Who knows if the Donald getting elected president will keep pressure on our dollar, but I expect it will. Everyone needs to keep in mind what a hugely global market we are playing in. As a broker who has been working in the business for 18 years now, I would like to comment on something that Reed mentioned earlier this last month. Occasionally we come across producers that are using us to find their markets for a small percentage of their production, then selling more to the same buyer with us not being involved. I told him I thought part of this is driven by margins being tight so not paying our $2.50/MT is viewed as a saving. I can agree that in the short term it looks that way, however, just a brief story to show why it isn’t. Back when I was new at the game, I helped a producer find a feed-mill that was paying a premium over market. He sold 2 loads through Quality Grain at that time and was going to wait and see what the markets did on the balance. When markets moved up, I contacted him again. He had in the interim sold the rest of his barley to the same feed mill at the same price I got for him. He saved $2.50/MT but the market had gone up almost $10/MT. Opps!! Nice saving. That is why it pays to use a broker. We will find you the best current price with reliable buyers. Okay. Back to the markets. I mentioned yellow peas and India in a newsletter. It seems that there is some support, but it isn’t very strong or consistent. Last week peas were a bit softer. Who knows what this week will bring? We have seen the price whipsaw from $9.50 up to $10.50, briefly touch $11.00 and drop back down to $10.00/bus FOB MB. Follow our weekly updates to get an idea on movement. You can also contact your broker if you would like to receive the daily market summary (email) or weekly text prices. Feed wheat has strengthened a bit. Mills are only paying for what they have to for supplies that they need. Corn is still being used in significant volumes. It all depends on what the computer tells them, the ingredients for the least cost feed formula. I often get calls from colonies and some feed-mills as to where current prices are trading. They aren’t looking for anything at that time, they just need accurate numbers to calculate rations. Another service we provide. As you have all figured out by now. If the CBT wheat bids go up $0.20/bushel that doesn’t make feed wheat move $7.50/MT, the next day. Most feed commodities we trade in are more cash driven than futures driven. Oats have been a hard to figure market so far. Milling oats ($4.25 FOB/$4.50 DEL) are not strong but much better than feed oats at $3.40. There is a significant amount of light oats in MB this year. This will likely keep top on feed oat prices. Corn has shown some life with values of $5.60-5.75/bus picked up trading (location dependent). We do have buyers looking. If you have corn available contact your broker and let him know, also an indication of what would buy some is helpful. Barley is trading at $6.15/bus delivered to feedlots in Southern AB and $5.20/bus delivered to feed mills in Southern MB. If you are interested let us know and we can get you a price picked up at the bin. This is a reminder with the varying quality that it is as important as ever to know your moisture and bushel weight. We have seen plenty of loads get rejected this year for being under 46 lbs, it is far easier to deal with the quality up front vs once it is sitting on a truck looking for a new home. As usual if you have any price targets don't hesitate to call one of us so we can get them entered into our system. All we need is Commodity, Volume, and target price. Until next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell [email protected] Good Day,
Another month in the bag. Hard to believe that 2024 is ¾ finished. It has been an interesting year with changes for all. We have seen grain prices move back to nearer normal prices from where they have been in the past few years. I know. I can hear people saying, “This can’t be the normal, as I can’t make money at these levels” Unfortunately the market doesn’t care if you make money in the short term. Those of us that have been around agriculture for more than 40 years and following pricing and costs have seen this happen regularly. It is tough for anyone who has budgeted for $12 wheat, $16 canola, and $8 barley, but this dip is all part of the normal cycle. We haven’t seen a large number of producers forced out of agriculture since the 1980’s. Hopefully this drop isn’t as severe or as long as that go round. Hopefully, Quality Grain can help smooth out the bumps. On that note, for us to be helpful you need to plan your cash flow requirements to make the most of our services. We can’t move your grain at top dollar and have cash in your hand the same day. We do have buyers that can move it quickly and get you paid promptly but you will pay for that service by getting a lesser price. It is a shame to have to take what the local elevator is offering you when the cash market is 20 to 40 cents better. You also need to know what you must sell. Good bin samples are necessary. Accurate test weight and moisture are critical. And please don’t sell the grain, start loading the truck and see that the grain has a problem. (musty, heated, lumps etc.) and continue to load the truck. I can guarantee that there is only one entity in this process who will be penalized. Once the truck leaves the yard you will have to accept any deductions the end-user takes because of quality or pay the extra freight to get grain to a market that will use out of condition grain. Things are not all doom and gloom. We have seen feed barley move off the lows of $3.75 in July to $4.50 currently. Hopefully, these prices will hold as the MB corn harvest is just getting started and growers are surprised at quality and quantity. Hearing 130 to 170 bushels/acre and 18 to 20 moisture. We have buyers looking for limited tonnage in the $5.30 range on Corn. We are seeing canola recover some of what Justin manages to take when he decided to go after the Chinese. Yellow peas are around the $10 FOB MB mark. Flax has shown some strength with harvest just getting started. $17.25 to $17.50. These prices that I mention are for grain in MB and SE SK. Freight always plays a part too. Here in MB harvest is down to soybeans and corn now with just the odd bit of oilseeds and cereals to go. We have seen good yields and quality. Which is a bit surprising considering the damp cool spring we had then the endless heat of July. It seems the only crop that is a disappointment is canola. Straw for 60 and 40 in the tank. In Manitoba we are looking for:
Some prices we have seen out west are $5.15/bus Barley FOB New Brigden AB and $4.70/bus FOB Cupar SK, feed wheat prices of $6.60/bus FOB Oyen AB. Yellow Mustard is in the 0.42/lbs picked up range, Red Lentils are $0.31/lbs FOB, Yellow Peas at $11.25/bus FOB Champion AB. Don't forget Quality Grain Marketing can now take targets so be sure to call your broker and put in any targets you may want to be active. If you have positive comments contact [email protected]. If you have complaints contact [email protected]. LOL Until next month, Take care and farm with the future in mind. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell [email protected] Good Day, Good-day to all of you hard working harvesters. Here in MB it has been a bit of a struggle. Not many days in a row without moisture, heavy dews so short days and the calendar is moving along. As we all know, harvesting in October is not an enjoyable experience. So let's hope for a good run in Sept. The forecast for Brandon is decent over the next few days so lets hope it holds. From talking to producers in MB and SE SK looks like a decent crop. Good barley ( 80 -100) and wheat (60-90) yields. With average grades. Some of the barley is making malt but not as much as last year. If you do have malt varieties reach out to you broker and let him know. We are seeing some interest in malt now. Prices not super - $5.75 to $6.00 but better than feed. Let us know what you have if it isn’t contracted and we will shop it for you. Demand seems to be variety specific this year more than ever. The canola I am hearing of has not met expectations from the producers. Stands that should go 60 are running 45. Maybe the later stuff will be better but way too much heat in July. Oats here in MB have been turning out decent, 110 to 150 and mostly good test weights. Fall rye has been the major surprise. Have yields of up to 100 bus/acre on the OP. Hybrid is even higher, but as usual the hybrid is the rye with ergot issues. Acres were down but the much better yields have made up for that. We are struggling to get $6.00 for good 2 CW rye now. Most prices are in the $5.80 range. Yellow peas have been on the down slope of that rollercoaster now. Need pretty special peas to get $10 for in MB. Not much demand to go into the US right now. Values are better the further west you go - seeing $10.25 delivered to facilities in Alberta. There was talk of India coming back into the market but nothing has happened to date. I’m afraid that Justin's decision to attack the Chinese EV imports is going to put pressure on our yellow peas as well as the brutal hit that canola has taken. Last time he tried to push the Chinese around it took more than a year to recover. I don’t think he is worried that far out right now. Still seeing strong values on Lentils and Green Peas. Green Peas are right around $14.00 picked up in the yard for #2 max 3% bleached. We have good options for up to 10% bleached. Large Green Lentils are holding $0.50/lbs picked up Oct/Nov - traded some in Yorkton for $0.51/lbs picked up last week. Red Lentils are holding $0.27/lbs picked up. We have been asked by many of our producers if there is a way they can put a target in with us. Reed has developed a program that is quite simple to use. Easy to understand and easy to cancel if you want out. It will give us a defined length of time to get your grain traded at your specified price. If we have a target in place and the market runs past your price we will always give you the higher price. Something the line companies don’t do. Let us know if you have any targets you want to place with us, we will need: commodity to market, the target price and for how long. We hope this will give you as producers another tool that can be utilized in marketing your grain. Example: Just a reminder. We have seen a record amount of heated canola this summer so if you are holding old crop over for better prices check your bins. Might even be a good idea to pull some out when you have a minute. I know “What minute?” We have seen too much that is dry, had cables in the bin and still started to heat. Make sure to check at the top before you start emptying. We have heard too many horror stories of 200 bushels on top of 5000 bushels that made it all 5% heated. Unfortunately, we have had pressure on the heated prices but still way better than dumping it in a slough. 80% Heated picked up Manitoba is $3.00/bus. 40% is closer to $7.00/bus picked up. Price is dependent on movement time frame and location. Many crushers have relayed they are booked full for the next 30 days.
That is it for this month. We hope you have time to read this while going up and down the field or waiting for the cart to dump. We always appreciate feedback on what we write so let us know what you don’t want to see and what you would like us to add. Have a great harvest. Stay safe as your family and loved ones need you home with them when harvest is over. Till next month, Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell [email protected] |
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February 2025
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