Grain Today - April 3, 2024

​Good Day,

Well Spring is here. It’s official. I think everyone is ready to get that crop in the ground. One of the questions that we have been getting this year is what you are seeing for new crop prices. When it’s the end of March and producers are asking that it lets us know that there are still many people trying to decide on what to seed. This is not surprising as there really isn’t any one crop that stands out on the profit line. Wheat just seems to sit there with no life, $14 canola doesn’t get people excited anymore. Maybe oats, ($4.25 in southern MB Aug/Sept) maybe barley (I personally think there will be lots of barley left in bins come end of July). Yellow peas might not be a bad option. – We still can get $10 for Aug-Nov movement in southern MB - inputs are still high but prices aren’t. As you can tell I don’t have a clue either. This will be a hard year to make the call on cropping plans. We are here to help. We are happy to do some large-scale tire kicking for you.  
  
That leads to another topic. A good broker is willing to help you with price discovery, dispute resolution and to also provide you with information in regard to what they are seeing day to day in the market. I know there are still producers out there that think they don’t need a broker. Likely they are right most of the time if they devote a significant portion of their time and energy to marketing. We can reduce that time you have to spend as we are in contact with 60 buyers who work for 40 different companies. Our fees are not very large considering we do price discovery for free. Just as an aside. I have never had a producer in the 18 years I have been doing this say to me “I can get a better price than you showed me, but I will still sell through you”.  Just doesn’t happen, I wouldn’t expect it either. If we can make you more than our fee, we are not doing our job.


Moisture is still a big topic of conversation across the prairies. Here around Brandon, we will be okay to start the crop, but you don’t have to go very far south or east, and it is dry. I think southern AB got a big shot of snow 10 days ago but considering how dry it was that will just get things going. Seems as if eastern SK is in pretty good shape with decent snow cover. If any of you would like to take 1 minute and let us know your moisture conditions, it would be appreciated.


Current prices are still showing no signs of bouncing back. Feed barley is running from $4.80 to $5.00 depending on location in MB. Malt barley is dead. Beer consumption in North America is down. Maybe because of one stupid ad or maybe because people have less money for sporting events. Who knows? This has led to maltsters being slow to move barley which is likely going to lead to barley losing quality by the time they want it. I heard 3rd hand that there is some of last year’s malt still in bins and new crop bids are only $6.00 compared to $4.75 for feed.


Just a quick rundown of how we do business at Quality Grain. A producer calls with grain to sell, we collect the information about the grain - test weight, moisture, any down grading factors and volume for sale. We put this out to our groups of buyers by email to begin the process. We get bids back from the buyers that are interested. We then present these bids to the producer with any relevant information in regard to the sale. If the price is close to what the producer would like we reach out to the buyer with the closest bid and show him the producer’s offer. If he says yes, we have a deal. If it's a no then we show the offer to all the buyers. It is surprising how often an offer will generate a few more cents/bushel. We then put the deal together on a Brokers Note which spells out price, timeframe, quality and volume. We do not hold an auction where we go back and forth between two buyers and try to run them up. We want our buyers to know that if they say yes to an offer, it is their grain. Not just a stick to beat another buyer with.


That is about it for this month. May the snow go in a sensible way and seeding progress as planned. But as the saying goes, "Man plans and God laughs".



Have a good April.  
 

Till next month,