COVID 19 - March 2020 - Feed Grain Update

Good afternoon,
 
I thought I would take a few minutes and jot down some of my thoughts and our observations of what we are seeing from both buyers and sellers during the last two weeks as COVID-19 becomes more and more part of our lives. I feel it is here to stay, 6 weeks from not it won’t be in the past, so we need to adjust to it.
 
Since COVID-19 has became the #1 news item we actually have not seen much of a decrease in prices for either feed barley, feed oats, or feed wheat. The demand for large tonnage isn’t as pronounced as it was before Christmas but we are still getting decent bids. We are seeing a real reluctance from producers in their willingness to sell at these prices. So often we have producers tell us “That’s not a bad price but I think I will wait till this corona thing sorts its self out.” I am not sure that is going to be the winning strategy this year. We are 4 to 6 weeks away from the 2019 harvest getting rolling again in Western Canada.
 
When that happens, we will be seeing large volumes of spring thrashed feed grains hitting the market. The hog industry isn’t going to get really excited about this grain but, if it gets cheap enough, they will switch some demand to it.  That being said they won’t be forced to pay up very much as there is lots of old crop barley and feed wheat still out there. Much of it hasn’t moved as a large volume of it is tough and producers are waiting to air it down, but that grain will be ready to market at the same time the spring thrashed comes to town so prices won’t be going the way we want them to.
 
This is also happening at a time when demand starts to drop for feed grain in Western Canada as well. If you have been following the cattle and hog markets you know that anyone feeding them is going to have to have a very sharp pencil to stay above water let alone make money.  As of right now most feedlots and feed mills are 90% covered into May. They are not going to pressure the market up either. No one on the buying side wants to be long, that always tells me they think there is more down in the market.
 
With restrictions either on or just around the corner this is maybe not the easiest time to market feed grain but if you are sitting on a big percentage maybe you should do some shopping and move a small chunk of it.
 
These are just my thoughts from what we are seeing taking place in the markets. Gives us a call and talk about what you need to have happen and maybe we can make something work for you.
 
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John Falk                                                         Richie Yaremko
Marketer – Altona MB                                  Marketer – Yorkton SK
John.qualitygrain@gmail.com                     Richie@qualitygrain.ca
204-362-0167                                                 306-620-9026
 
Victor Dorma                                                  Reed McDonald                    
Marketer - Airdrie AB                                    Owner/Marketer – Calgary AB
Victor.qualitygrain@gmail.com                   reed@qualitygrain.ca
587-438-6749                                                 403-380-5044
 
 
Wes Schneider
Marketer, Vulcan AB
Wes@Qualitygrain.ca
403-485-5565
 
 
Richard Chambers
Marketer - Brandon MB
Richard_qgm@mymts.net
204-729-1354 – office
204-761-8320 - cell