Grain Today - February 5, 2020

​Good afternoon
 
Its been a while since I have sat down and took the time to put some info about grain markets in the prairies.
 
Since I wrote my last one just before Christmas, we have seen some things in the world that are having impacts on our prices.
 
Considering all the hype we had to listen to about Trump and China signing a new trade deal it has had very little if any impact on prices. Considering China’s track record at honoring a deal I am not that surprised.  
 
The Coronavirus seems to be something that is having a big impact on everything, stock markets, commodity markets and people’s confidence in how it will be handled. It is interesting to read all the different versions on line. From the governments have a handle on the problem to the other extreme that it could be as bad a pandemic as the Spanish Flu that ran from 1918 to 1920. 500 million people where infected and 50 million people died. And this was before we became a global economy with air travel spreading the problem.
 
One of the things that is hurting the feed market in western Canada is the fact that we are having an above normal temperature winter, the critters are just not eating as much.
 
Since the first week in January we have seen feed barley drop from $188 in western MB to $177 yesterday in similar locations. Tough feed wheat has taken a similar hit. Down $8/MT in that timeframe. If you have dry wheat, we still can get you $5 - $5.20 picked up in western MB, just too much tough wheat. Unfortunately, most pulses are trending down. Just isn’t any demand for yellows at over $6 fob. Greens are under $10 now with lentils giving up 1 to 2 cents a lb since December.
 
About the only bright spot is the milling oat market. If you have heavy (43 lb or better), dry (<13.5 moisture) 2 CW oats they are working there way up. We have seen bids of $3.75 in Western MB and Arborg MB areas. Price decreases just by freight spreads from there.
 
We are seeing a fair amount of very low chitted barley coming to market because it no longer has germ. This barley is in the 14 to 15 moisture range. This seems to be a real problem even if it is frozen down with air the germ still drops. Make sure that you have a good handle on the moistures on any accepted malt contacts you have. I was talking to one long term malt buyer (he is my age so I will just call him experienced) who said he has seen this same thing happen when the barley has been exposed to prolong moisture while still in the field. Think of those foggy crappy days we had when everyone was trying to harvest.
 
We do have good demand for edible quality brown ($14.50 SE SK) and yellow (15.50 similar location) flax, dry feed wheat, milling oats and heated canola if you have that problem.
 
As always don’t hesitate to call, text or email if you have questions or would like to have us do some price discovery. If you are interested in seeing what we trade on a day to day basis follow Reed on Twitter @QGM_Grain or check out our website www.QualityGrain.ca

Richard Chambers
Marketer
Brandon MB.
Richard_qgm@mymts.net
204-729-1354 – office
204-761-8320 - cell