Well this last month just proves that I know absolutely nothing about the grain markets. Have been brokering for 18 years, grew grain for 35 years before that and no smarter than anyone else. You would think with the Dow and the S&P still climbing that the grain markets would show some stability. Myself and other people in the industry felt that $5.00 for feed barley on farm would likely be the bottom. Wrong again. We are seeing bids of $4.65 and I almost feel certain that we will see $4.50. This will not be good news for barley acres. I would think it will push some cereal acres into oats as they are still at $4.25 to $4.50 picked up for new crop. It feels like this year will be a challenge to chart a profitable plan with prices for grains and inputs where they are.
The moisture situation seems to be a real issue all across the prairies. Everyone we talk to is talking about it and I understand why. Not much snowfall and what has come hasn’t lasted with all these plus temperatures. +21 C in Maple Creek SK last week, that is nuts. The good news is that no crop has ever been lost in February but…. we are starting to see a bit of the buyer appreciation of the moisture and old crop price situation. This week in Alberta we saw new crop barley bids nearly $20.00/MT higher than old crop bids for the same area.
A bit of information that might be relevant. Several of my customers have called in the last month and asked me about Harvest Grain Marketing. This company is in no way associated with Quality Grain Marketing. As far as dealing with them my thoughts are that if you want to deal with someone who would work, very briefly, with a company then steal all of that company's contacts and leave to start a competitor odds are there will be issues and anything that goes wrong is one you.
We have some demand for Old Crop Rye. Seeing $8.00 picked up based on 2 CW specs, slight premium for open pollinated with +85% germ. New crop Yellow Peas we are seeing bids of $9.75 picked up in SW MB and SE Sask. Will be interesting to see where this goes over the next couple months. Milling oats have been filling up quickly with movement now showing Oct-December for $4.30-4.60 picked up western MB. Across AB/MB/SK we are seeing feed bids be pushed further into spring as buyers are happy with their current coverage. Reverting back to new crop barley seeing stronger bids than old crop we traded $6.05 picked up Crossfield AB for Aug/Sept movement and are currently seeing $5.70 picked up in the same area for Feb/Mar movement.
Just a quick reminder. If you have canola in bins as of right now it seems that this spring weather in January is causing another round of quality issues. Please check your bins, pull a load, and get it tested. If you see any issues let one of us know and we will help you out with pricing.
Till next month,
Marketer - Brandon, MB
204-729-1354 - Office
204-761-8320 - Cell