Grain Today - July 2022
I have been a bit negligent in regard to getting the newsletter out for this month. I hope you feel better late than never. We drove down through Manitoba and Ontario to Toronto over the last 2 weeks. The northern route is very scenic but Canada should not consider that road an accomplishment in road building. The crop in southern Ontario is under moisture stress and pastures and lawns are brown. We came back through the US and didn’t see much crop until Bemidji MN. From there to home the crops looked generally good but I would say 10% of seeded acres have drowned out. Everything was 10 days behind normal. We also saw a much bigger number of fields not seeded. But if I was a US farmer looking at seeding a late crop in mud or taking the $400 plus/ acre prevent plant payment I think I know how I would go.
It has been a very dramatic market over the last 6 weeks. See the chart below showing the drop per ton since mid June on Barley and Feed Wheat. I don’t think anyone saw this kind of price drop coming. My personal thoughts are that we haven’t found millions of tonnes of grain in the world over the last 6 weeks. I think it is being driven by the funds getting out so they can take their profits and start the whole cycle again. I think the drop is likely over done but I also don’t think we will see a rally before the new crop is in the bin. But just remember that my opinion is only worth what you paid for it.
A couple of things to remember as harvest is approaching.
Always keep good samples of your bins. It is likely one of the ways to make more money with very little cost and in less time than you would think. Information is king.
Take the time to submit samples as you get the crop harvested if the contract requires it. We get calls every year from producers wondering why their off combine moved grain is still in the bin when the buyer is waiting for a sample.
We are getting the feeling if you need to market grain off combine for cash flow reasons you will have to pick and choose which crops you go with. The new crop contracts we are seeing now have 4- and 5-month delivery windows as processors are struggling with shipping and are afraid it will only get worse. Just something to keep in mind.
We still have limited demand for feed grains, but the prices have been trimmed 20 to 30% from the highs. The approaching new crop pulse harvest is also pushing down demand in those markets. Give us a call if you are looking for any old crop prices. We are still seeing some decent new crop feed barley prices in some areas. We can likely help with that too.
That is about it for this month. Enjoy the bit of a lull before harvest hits full swing, take the kids to the lake. Go fishing and enjoy our Canadian summer.
Till next month.
Marketer - Brandon, MB
204-729-1354 - Office
204-761-8320 - Cell
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