Grain Today - October 4, 2021

​I thought August was an interesting month in the grain markets. Not even in
the running compared to September. It seems the best marketing plan is to
just not sell. That will work until it doesn't. Prices are so high compared
to historical norms that there is a very good chance of a correction. We
have seen drops of $20/MT but it has always came back. The scary thing about a real correction is it will likely take months to recover if not years.

Oats are a great example of this. We traded $6.00 oats in August (great price historically) then we traded $6.50, then $7.00. Now we hear stories of advisors saying they will go to $10. That would be great but stop and think what will happen to demand. An 80% increase in the #1 component in Cheerios is going to have an impact on all oat based products. Mom might say junior still needs his Cheerios, but other users will just say too expensive. Price will ration demand. Guaranteed.

We have seen new crop corn trend down as harvest is getting rolling in MB.
Yields and quality are better than growers expected in July. Prices have
dropped from a high of $10 picked up to current levels of $8.50 to $8.60
picked up. This trend could continue as the US corn harvest is just getting
under way. This will put some pressure on other commodities.

We have good demand for all feed grains. Prices holding steady to strong. We had a bump this past week. Feed wheat at $10 picked up Western MB, feed barley at $8.00-$8.25 in SE SK depending on timeframe. Feed oats are almost at milling prices $5.80- to $6.00. Alberta and western SK are all relative in terms of freight cost.

We are seeing a bit of a jump in yellow pea prices as well. $16.50 for near
by up to $18 for further out. They need to be 13.5 moisture to get best prices as the US is where the demand is. Other pulses are staying strong.

It does look like the mustards are going to be an interesting market. Brown
and oriental are grown in some of the most drought affected areas, and this
is being reflected in pricing for all mustards including yellow. Let us know
if you have any for sale.

Best thing to do is call one of us for current local prices.

I would just like to mention that Victor Dorma of Airdrie AB is retiring
from Quality Grain Marketing. He has been with us for almost 8 years and has provided great service to our clientele in his area. He will be missed as
part of our team.  If you worked with Victor in the past either Reed
McDonald or Andrew Hall will be contacting you in the near future to discuss
how Quality Grain can help you with your marketing.
 
We are please to announce we are offering a new marketing tool to help your business succeed, a daily email tracking of all our daily price info to help you make better real time marketing decisions. This daily summary will show all our grain shown for the day and the bids on each lot. This tool has proven to be a very valuable to anyone making grain marketing decisions. Subscription cost - $125 + GST for 1-year subscription. For more information, please follow the link: https://www.qualitygrain.ca/store/p2/Quality_Grain_Bid_Sheet.html

We have good demand for:

- Feed Wheat
- Barley both feed and malt
- 2 CW oats
- Yellow peas
- Heated & Green canola

I imagine most of the crop is now in the bin. Now the interesting part is
coming. When to pull the trigger, is the buyer credit worthy, how high can
price go. Give us a call and we can talk these things over with you.

Richard Chambers
Marketer - Brandon, MB
204-729-1354 - Office
204-761-8320 - Cell
richard@qualitygrain.ca