Good Day, I have some good news and some bad news. First the good. You only have to read one more of my newsletters this year. Now the bad. We still can’t figure this market out. I have heard various people use different terms to describe it. Whipsaw, yoyo, crazy, unpredictable etc... These terms all fit. It has been the most volatile market I have ever seen over the last 18 months. Some of the volatility make sense with weather and war having big impacts. But can someone tell me why canola went down $40 one day and then back up $20 as I write this. If our politicians wanted to do something meaningful, they could hold an inquiry into the speculators who are screwing with your livelihood. But no sexy photo ops on that topic. Eh Justin? Last week I was going to mention the possible impact that the impending rail strike in the US could have on our prices here. Turns out that will not be a factor as both the House and the Senate have approved legislation that forces the unions to accept the deal that was negotiated. This is likely a double-edged sword for us here in western Canada. It would impact north-south movement as well as east-west in the US of many commodities with grain being the one that is on our minds the most. I was wondering what it would do to the crazy high truck rates we have now. It would have reduced competition for prairie grain into feedlot alley and the hog industry if the unit trains of US corn couldn’t come into Canada for a few weeks/months. I was thinking this would help feed barley and MB corn prices but not to be, I guess. We have seen a noticeable pulling back by buyers in all commodities. Prices have been hurt but quick movement is just about off the table. Buyers are telling us they are covered out to mid winter. If you need movement, for cash flow reasons, get on it sooner than later. Some crops have fared not too bad compared to last year. Flax is one that seems to be moving the wrong way. Buyers are covered until March and are bidding under $18 for that timeframe. Green peas have finally beat yellows after 2 years of waiting. $14 delivered in AB and up to $15 delivered in SK. Not sure if this is short term or not. There seems to be some interest in new crop contracting already. We priced some yellow mustard at over $0.90/lb this week with AoG, but have seen it pull back to the mid 80s. Have priced feed barley in eastern SK for $6.00 picked up off combine. These prices are not as good as last year's new crop opportunities, but we also are not going to be sold out of most crops like last year. Might be something to think about. Get some prices locked in and play with the balance. $6.00 off combine barley doesn’t look like much but historically it is a good number. One of the big advantages of growing our team is we see different possibilities of how we can help the producer be more profitable. Any one on our email list has seen our fertilizer pricing over the last 2 weeks. We are going to continue doing tire-kicking for urea and phosphate. An example is $965 picked up central MB for urea in December. Give us a call and we will help with your shopping. We are getting calls most days about heated grain. This is just a reminder to check your bins. We can maximize the returns if you have the misfortune to have some heat but don’t wait for the snow to melt off the roof. We have good interest in any heated canola you do have. We have started doing weekly reports on the prices we are finding for grain in each province. We hope these are helpful to our producers. Here is the Alberta price list from this week: We are doing a producer meeting in conjunction with Western Ag Labs and ADM in Virden in the afternoon of Dec 12 th. If it is well received we will likely be having meetings in other locations. I feel it is a great way to build the relationships we have with our customers. Faces on voices etc.
That is about it for this newsletter. Don’t forget to check with us before you sell as we have a good idea of current values in most areas. And the call is free. Till next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca
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Good Day,
There are two things we seem to have no control over, the weather – down 18 degrees from yesterday, and the markets. Wheat was up 45 cents Monday/Tuesday and down 60 cents Wednesday/Thursday. The weather we are used to, but this kind of variability in the markets is making it extremely difficult to predict where things are going. It has been another busy month at Quality Grain. We have been shown all kinds of grains and all kinds of qualities too. Here is one of my little frustrations in this business. A producer calls us and we find him a great price with a new buyer. The grain moves, everyone is happy. Then to save the brokerage fee the producer decides he will sell to that same buyer. This might work, but more likely he has shot himself in the foot. The buyer knows he doesn’t have to compete, so they can bid less. And all of a sudden, the brokerage was pretty cheap. I know I am biased because that is the service we offer but I have never done a deal that cost the producer based on prices at that time. That is why we have no problem kicking tires for you. Everyone needs a reliable broker for no other reason to check and make sure the price they have found is the best price out there. As I mentioned before, the prices are a roller coaster this year. Ex) we booked $12.50 to $13 for Yellow Peas 10 days ago for November movement in SE SK and SW MB. Today we are down 50 cents from those bids. But with the dollar slipping again we will regain some of the losses, I think. We have also seen delivered and picked up barley prices in Alberta give up $15 to $20 from 2 weeks ago. Seems the feedlots have coverage, and they are also landing US corn at good values which takes some pressure off. We have been trading up to $8.00 for feed barley in the same area as the peas. It needs to be 13.5% moisture and ideally 50 lbs bus weight. Today we would need an offer to make it happen but let us know if you are interested. I will also remind you that we have good markets for heated or green canola, feed wheat, milling and feed oats. As always, we need good information: test weight (ideally grams/0.5l), moisture, grade if you have it and for some crops a picture really helps. If anyone has yellow mustard, we do have serious buyer demand for it. We do have a buyer in Western MB looking for 200 MT of corn a month for the next 8 months. If anyone has interest in filling all or part of that let us know. $400/MT del is an indication. If you have feed wheat, we have homes for it too. Before I sign off here are some prices that have traded recently: Southern Manitoba feed peas for $12/bus picked up, northern MB barley for $7.25/bus picked up, NW SK barely $8.00/bus picked up, Southern Alberta Feed Wheat for $11.00/bus picked up. We have good demand for 1 CW clean Rye in Southern Alberta (Jan/Feb/Mar movement). Till next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Good morning. Looks like all the prairies will have their first taste of winter. Tonight will be the first night we have had a real killing frost in Brandon since May. That makes my comments about possible surplus of feed grains because of frozen wheat look pretty off the mark. But as they say “Man plans, the Gods laugh”. The only thing that seems to be consistent in the world these days is extreme volatility in the markets. All commodities seem to be in the same cycle with feed grains leading the charge. Barley prices gave up 30% from the highs in Feb/March to the lows in early August. They have increased 12% since then which really goes against normal markets. On a year like this with average crops we would think the prices wouldn’t recover until Jan/Feb when traditional demand pushes things higher. But right now it is a wait and see game. Who will blink first - buyers to get significant coverage or producers due to cash flow requirements. We have traded $7.50 barley in Western MB and SE SK with higher prices working west. One of the things that is really impacting bids and movement is a lack of trucks. We are not short on the actual trucks, it is lack of drivers that is causing the crunch. There has been more demand for drivers from the oil industry plus there doesn’t seem to be new drivers entering the field. Covid was hard on drivers as well with all the restrictions that were put in place. As an example of how it affects your bottom line. Freight from Virden MB to the Lethbridge area was $45-$50/MT 3 years ago. It is now $70-$75 if you can find a truck with a backhaul, otherwise it's $100/MT. We have heard of shippers not being able to find trucks even when they say name your rate. Another thing to remember is the impact of our weak Canadian dollar. If we were back at $0.80 instead of the $0.725 we are at today the prices would be considerably lower. Approx. 11% lower on exchange alone. But this is double edged as everything we buy is impacted negatively by the same amount. Have been hearing fertilizer is heading for the roof again with chemicals following right behind. Enough doom and gloom. I was talking to an agronomist in the Alameda area who also happens to have been one of my clients for many years. He had some very interesting things to say about soil testing, especially in regard to issues with super dry soils not giving accurate results with nitrogen levels. I was very impressed with his explanation on how and why this works. He even managed to dumb it down so I could follow along. He is Edgar Hammermiester of Western Ag Labs. He is going to contribute an article on this subject to our newsletter (possibly mid month). We are also planning on having some breakfast producer meetings in Western MB and Eastern SK in November. Likely Virden and Redvers. Edgar will be speaking at them about Western Ag Labs and what they offer for services. This is just a heads up so you can be ready to fit breakfast in when we pin the dates down. Another service we offer is our daily summary which is available (if interested please inquire about the free trial). Take a look at yesterday's summary and see if you think it might bring value to your operation. As for commodity prices we have been seen Rye in Alberta trade as high as $9/bus for spring/summer 2023, barley prices closing in on $9.50 delivered to Lethbridge in the new year, strong demand for feed wheat and feed peas, and Yellow Peas and Green Peas showing some life with bids as high as $13/bus delivered to processing plants. Don’t be shy to contact any of us (list of brokers at the bottom of the newsletter) with price inquiries while keeping in mind trucks are at premium so plan out your movement before it needs to be gone yesterday. Till next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day, Well it is September 1,2022 and we have just gone through the craziest/volatile 24 months of grain markets that I have seen in my 48 years of being directly involved in grain markets. First as a producer then as a broker. It has been great while it was going up but these last 2 months on the express elevator down have created a bit of a challenge for everyone involved. As usual the producer gets caught between what they need for profit based on current costs and what the actual market will bear. As an example we traded $10 gluten free oats mid January 2022. Today the bids are $4.50 for the same product in the same area. Granted $10 oats are not a sustainable price in the long term but maybe $4.50 is just a bit too low vs actual yields and cost. We are seeing a big swing in crop yields this year. Better than last year in the very dry areas, all the way to excellent “Best crop in 20 years”. We likely will end up with close to average production across the prairies this year. Prices have reflected the better supply. Barley is $6 ish on average, feed wheat $8.75, feed oats $3.50, milling oats $4 ish, Yellow peas $10.50, green peas similar. It will be interesting to see if chickpeas hold the premium they had last year. We still have good demand for yellow, brown and oriental mustard. The same principles of successful marketing apply this year as always. #1 - keep good bin samples… #2 - monitor your grain once harvested #3 - clean out handling equipment when switching crops. Great way to ruin gluten free oats. #4 - Get your samples independently graded. Buyers love to have results from SGS, Intertec or any of the other graders out there. #5 - Contact a reputable broker to get you multiple independent bids. We work for you when you call. The more information you bring us the more likely we will be able to get you top dollar. Most importantly – Be careful - you and your crew need to get through harvest in one piece or it will be the worst harvest you have ever had. I know you are busy so we will keep this edition short but here is an interesting chart from Stats Can as well as a link to the whole report if you have time. ( Stats Canada Link)
Until next time. May the sunshine and the rain not fall. PS I will be in Egypt trying to find markets for grain between camel rides and checking out the pyramids until Sept 21st, so contact Reed if you have questions. Till next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca Good Day,
Well, we have made it through another crop year and it was a very interesting year. Short crop which led to good prices, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This drove the markets into an extreme situation with prices whipsawing back and forth faster than a person could follow. Prices in western Canada topped out 6-8 weeks ago. Then the funds thought they would take the profits they had made and now the Russians pretended they were going to allow grain exports to start again and this put prices into a virtual freefall. Every time we thought we had hit bottom, a new low occurred. It doesn’t feel that we are getting anywhere close to stable markets in the near future. This period will have been a real test for market advisors and producers alike. Do you recommend selling when canola rallies $40 in a day only to drop $38 the next day? Do you as a producer lock in some of the prices that are still available? Eg) – Oats at $7.00 for off combine in March compared to $5.00 right now for the same timeframe. This is likely one of the hardest times to decide what to do. We might be able to help so don’t hesitate to contact any of the excellent people working with Quality Grain. Crop prospects seem to be fairly good across the prairies right now. Things are delayed in eastern SK and MB as it was too wet at seeding plus flooding in the Red River valley. I would say that 90% of the intended acres are still in production at this time between some fields that were just too wet and the drowned out spots. Pretty much everyone I have talked to in this area are saying crops look amazing considering how wet it was through May and June. We are seeing fall rye and what little winter wheat survived getting close to harvest. We do have good interest in both crops for Sept-Nov movement. $8.00 rye is still available if anyone is interested. Some things to remember as harvest approaches. Keep good samples of every bin. This is a money maker. There is no way you can maximize the returns from your crop without good information. Do not be afraid to spend some money getting your samples graded. The local line companies are grading for their own benefit not yours. Intertec or SGS do a great job of giving you EXPORT based grades on all crops. There is nothing worse than shipping several loads of what you thought were #2 quality oats as an example and the buyer grades them a 4. Now what do you do? Bring them home? Not likely an option. Discounts are at buyer's discretion. That is not likely going to be fun. Be careful with cleanout of trucks and handling equipment when switching crops. Nothing worse than having that discount or causing a rejection on the last load out of the bin due to contamination. Keep good records on what was applied to the crop as harvest approaches. We are getting more enquiries about that and more bids based on no glyphosate on oats and peas as an example. It isn’t that we can find decent markets if you are forced to apply certain products, but we need to know at the time of marketing. Price discovery is harder than I have ever seen it in the 18 years I have been working with Quality Grain. Some days we have no bid on certain commodities. The best thing you can do is give us a call and we will get to work and find out what the buyers are thinking. I would be very interested if some of our producers would give us a bit of an update on how their crops are doing as far as maturity and yield potential. We would prefer that you be a bit more accurate than you are while completing your Stats Canada reports HAHA. We will let everyone know what info we get from this request. On that note, we will be in touch again later in the month. Until then be careful and enjoy what is left of summer. Till next month. Richard Chambers Marketer - Brandon, MB 204-729-1354 - Office 204-761-8320 - Cell richard@qualitygrain.ca |
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